Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.5% | 43.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 74.8% | 25.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 56.5% | 43.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 61.7% | 38.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.1% | 27.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.1% | 27.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns -4 (107-111). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Lee * | 44 | 10-18 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 19 | - |
| Klay Thompson * | 41 | 10-18 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 12 | - |
| Stephen Curry * | 40 | 6-15 | 3-8 | 3-3 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 19 | - |
| Jarrett Jack * | 31 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Carl Landry * | 26 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Harrison Barnes * | 25 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Andrew Bogut * | 19 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Festus Ezeli | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Draymond Green | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Kent Bazemore | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic * | 43 | 11-13 | 3-4 | 7-7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 20 | - |
| Jermaine O'Neal * | 32 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | - |
| P.J. Tucker * | 31 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 18 | - |
| Michael Beasley * | 31 | 12-17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 10 | - |
| Wesley Johnson * | 29 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -1 | - |
| Jared Dudley * | 22 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Markieff Morris * | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | - |
| Luis Scola * | 15 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Kendall Marshall * | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Shannon Brown * | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Marcus Morris Sr. | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
* = starter