Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Charlotte Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 87.3% | 12.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 93.1% | 6.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 78.0% | 22.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 74.6% | 25.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 92.0% | 8.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 92.0% | 8.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 77.2% | 22.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Charlotte Hornets -10 (79-89). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bosh * | 37 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 17 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 32 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 30 | 9-15 | 7-11 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 18 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 27 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 27 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| James Jones * | 21 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 20 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - |
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker * | 40 | 3-15 | 0-6 | 6-6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Josh McRoberts * | 37 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist * | 37 | 7-17 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 17 | - |
| Gerald Henderson * | 36 | 2-16 | 0-3 | 7-8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -1 | - |
| Bismack Biyombo * | 25 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Reggie Williams * | 21 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Tyrus Thomas * | 16 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Ben Gordon * | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Jeffery Taylor * | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Jannero Pargo | 10 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
* = starter