Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Oklahoma City Thunder | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.9% | 63.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Oklahoma City Thunder +12 (100-88). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard * | 41 | 9-18 | 3-4 | 3-6 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 25 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 35 | 9-19 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 19 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 29 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Danny Green * | 29 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Gary Neal * | 28 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | - |
| Boris Diaw * | 28 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 25 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Nando De Colo * | 22 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant * | 44 | 10-20 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 18 | - |
| Serge Ibaka * | 34 | 5-9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 17 | - |
| Russell Westbrook * | 34 | 9-21 | 2-6 | 7-7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 20 | - |
| Thabo Sefolosha * | 27 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Nick Collison * | 24 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | - |
| Kendrick Perkins * | 23 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Kevin Martin * | 21 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Reggie Jackson * | 14 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Derek Fisher * | 14 | 6-8 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11 | - |
* = starter