Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.5% | 68.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.7% | 67.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.6% | 68.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +1 (95-94). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 35 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 29 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 28 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 25 | 5-14 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Mike James * | 24 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 24 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 | - |
| O.J. Mayo * | 23 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 23 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 12 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Anthony Morrow | 12 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Iguodala * | 40 | 3-13 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 37 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 27 | - |
| Corey Brewer * | 34 | 7-17 | 2-5 | 7-8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 12 | - |
| Andre Miller * | 32 | 9-15 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 17 | - |
| Kosta Koufos * | 21 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Wilson Chandler * | 20 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Evan Fournier * | 19 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Danilo Gallinari * | 16 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 3-6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | - |
| JaVale McGee * | 14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Anthony Randolph * | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter