Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 4.0% | 96.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 8.4% | 91.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 11.1% | 88.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 11.0% | 89.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +14 (98-84). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Harkless * | 42 | 8-21 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 8 | - |
| Tobias Harris * | 41 | 5-19 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Beno Udrih * | 39 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Nikola Vučević * | 35 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 25 | - |
| E'Twaun Moore * | 23 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| DeQuan Jones * | 19 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Doron Lamb * | 16 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Andrew Nicholson * | 9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Kyle O'Quinn | 11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Neal * | 31 | 6-14 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Nando De Colo * | 28 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 | - |
| Danny Green * | 27 | 7-10 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 18 | - |
| Patty Mills * | 24 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Boris Diaw * | 24 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 22 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Stephen Jackson * | 19 | 1-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | - |
| Aron Baynes * | 17 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 16 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 13 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Cory Joseph | 12 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | - |
* = starter