Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Los Angeles Lakers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.6% | 66.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.7% | 61.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Los Angeles Lakers +20 (101-81). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 34 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 33 | 4-13 | 1-3 | 2-6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 28 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 27 | 4-13 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | -4 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 27 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Mike James * | 20 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 19 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 17 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 16 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Elton Brand | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Anthony Morrow | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Justin Dentmon | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant * | 47 | 8-18 | 0-3 | 7-8 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 29 | - |
| Steve Blake * | 37 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 36 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 10-20 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 25 | - |
| Jodie Meeks * | 36 | 2-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Pau Gasol * | 34 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Earl Clark * | 29 | 7-14 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 22 | - |
| Antawn Jamison * | 16 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -3 | - |
| Robert Sacre | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter