Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | New Orleans Pelicans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 83.3% | 16.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 87.1% | 12.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.8% | 35.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 64.1% | 35.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 80.6% | 19.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 80.6% | 19.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.3% | 35.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: New Orleans Pelicans -19 (89-108). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 32 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 14 | - |
| LeBron James * | 32 | 13-20 | 7-10 | 3-5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 25 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 28 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 26 | 5-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 23 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 22 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 22 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 21 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| James Jones | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Roberts * | 41 | 6-14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 4 | - |
| Al-Farouq Aminu * | 33 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 17 | - |
| Ryan Anderson * | 31 | 8-15 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 9 | - |
| Eric Gordon * | 29 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 10-10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 7 | - |
| Anthony Davis * | 28 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Darius Miller * | 20 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Robin Lopez * | 18 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Roger Mason Jr. * | 12 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Lou Amundson * | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Lance Thomas * | 10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Terrel Harris | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter