Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.1% | 38.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 65.7% | 34.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.7% | 34.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -25 (78-103). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul George * | 37 | 10-17 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 21 | - |
| George Hill * | 29 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| David West * | 28 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Lance Stephenson * | 27 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Roy Hibbert * | 24 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 18 | - |
| Orlando Johnson * | 20 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Tyler Hansbrough * | 20 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi * | 20 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| D.J. Augustin * | 18 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Gerald Green | 10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Jeff Ayres | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 34 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -1 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 32 | 10-20 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 8 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 29 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 5-6 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 25 | 5-13 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 24 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 21 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Mike James * | 19 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Anthony Morrow * | 11 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 10 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Elton Brand | 20 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Justin Dentmon | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Chris Kaman | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Bernard James | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
* = starter