Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 31.1% | 68.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.4% | 58.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.9% | 60.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +1 (100-99). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Iguodala * | 36 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Wilson Chandler * | 34 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Danilo Gallinari * | 31 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Andre Miller * | 28 | 7-18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | - |
| JaVale McGee * | 25 | 10-11 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 25 | - |
| Corey Brewer * | 22 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 22 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Kosta Koufos * | 20 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Ty Lawson * | 19 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard * | 38 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 35 | 6-16 | 1-1 | 5-6 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 35 | 9-18 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 22 | - |
| Danny Green * | 32 | 6-12 | 6-8 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 12 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 27 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 26 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Boris Diaw * | 18 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Cory Joseph * | 12 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| DeJuan Blair * | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Stephen Jackson * | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter