Model Predictions
| Model | Utah Jazz | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.4% | 49.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.9% | 48.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +5 (113-108). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Utah Jazz
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Hayward * | 41 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Mo Williams * | 35 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Paul Millsap * | 27 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Randy Foye * | 27 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Al Jefferson * | 26 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Marvin Williams * | 22 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Enes Freedom * | 21 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Derrick Favors * | 16 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Alec Burks * | 8 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Jamaal Tinsley * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jeremy Evans | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| DeMarre Carroll | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 35 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Mike James * | 32 | 7-10 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 15 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 30 | 6-8 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 18 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 26 | 7-13 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 22 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 21 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 11-13 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 21 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 8-8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Elton Brand * | 17 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 16 | - |
| Chris Kaman | 8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Anthony Morrow | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Bernard James | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
* = starter