Model Predictions
| Model | Charlotte Hornets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.8% | 96.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 6.8% | 93.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 13.4% | 86.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 25.5% | 74.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 8.3% | 91.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 8.2% | 91.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 14.0% | 86.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +32 (109-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bismack Biyombo * | 36 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | - |
| Kemba Walker * | 36 | 7-21 | 2-7 | 4-6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | - |
| Gerald Henderson * | 35 | 8-18 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 6 | - |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist * | 31 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 17 | - |
| Jeffery Taylor * | 26 | 4-12 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Byron Mullens * | 22 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | - |
| Jannero Pargo * | 17 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -2 | - |
| Ben Gordon * | 16 | 0-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Jeff Adrien | 13 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Reggie Williams | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 34 | 11-14 | 0-1 | 10-11 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 38 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 31 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 26 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 25 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 22 | 5-9 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 21 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 21 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 16 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 15 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 14 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Juwan Howard | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| James Jones | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter