Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Hawks | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 55.8% | 44.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks -5 (99-104). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Horford * | 41 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 23 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 36 | 9-17 | 1-5 | 4-5 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 23 | - |
| Jeff Teague * | 36 | 5-13 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Kyle Korver * | 32 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Devin Harris * | 29 | 5-12 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Johan Petro * | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 17 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Anthony Tolliver * | 15 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | - |
| John Jenkins * | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Shelvin Mack | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jennings * | 42 | 4-15 | 1-5 | 3-5 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Monta Ellis * | 38 | 8-15 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 10 | - |
| Larry Sanders * | 32 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 20 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova * | 28 | 7-16 | 0-4 | 5-8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 13 | - |
| JJ Redick * | 26 | 4-11 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy * | 21 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Ekpe Udoh * | 19 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Samuel Dalembert * | 15 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Marquis Daniels * | 15 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter