Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.4% | 44.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +10 (104-94). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bass * | 34 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 22 | - |
| Paul Pierce * | 34 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 4-5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 14 | - |
| Avery Bradley * | 31 | 4-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Jeff Green * | 30 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 2 | - |
| Kevin Garnett * | 28 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 23 | - |
| Courtney Lee * | 27 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Jason Terry * | 21 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -1 | - |
| Chris Wilcox * | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Jordan Crawford * | 15 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | - |
| Terrence Williams | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 39 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 32 | 8-15 | 1-2 | 5-5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 14 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 31 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 19 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 30 | 11-16 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 17 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 29 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Mike James * | 24 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 16 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Bernard James * | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Vince Carter | 27 | 6-17 | 1-7 | 6-9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 9 | - |
* = starter