Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Pistons | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 4.3% | 95.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 10.9% | 89.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.9% | 80.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.8% | 84.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.8% | 84.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +14 (103-89). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon * | 43 | 7-11 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Rodney Stuckey * | 40 | 4-15 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Greg Monroe * | 40 | 10-19 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 24 | - |
| Kyle Singler * | 36 | 8-14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Jonas Jerebko * | 24 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Jason Maxiell * | 18 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Will Bynum * | 13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Kim English | 12 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Charlie Villanueva | 9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 39 | 12-15 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 30 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 37 | 7-17 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 6 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 31 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 29 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 25 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 22 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 14 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| James Jones | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Mike Miller | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter