Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 86.1% | 13.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 90.0% | 10.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 75.5% | 24.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 90.6% | 9.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 90.6% | 9.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 75.9% | 24.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Orlando Magic -8 (89-97). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant * | 40 | 7-14 | 2-3 | 9-11 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 21 | - |
| Serge Ibaka * | 35 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 21 | - |
| Russell Westbrook * | 34 | 7-17 | 0-2 | 5-7 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 18 | - |
| Thabo Sefolosha * | 27 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Kendrick Perkins * | 26 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Kevin Martin * | 25 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Nick Collison * | 18 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Reggie Jackson * | 14 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Derek Fisher * | 12 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| DeAndre Liggins * | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Harkless * | 44 | 11-18 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 23 | - |
| Tobias Harris * | 43 | 3-17 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Jameer Nelson * | 40 | 7-17 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Beno Udrih * | 36 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Kyle O'Quinn * | 26 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Andrew Nicholson * | 21 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -3 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 12 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| E'Twaun Moore * | 10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| DeQuan Jones | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Doron Lamb | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter