Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.7% | 61.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks +8 (98-90). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monta Ellis * | 39 | 2-14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | - |
| Brandon Jennings * | 38 | 8-18 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 6 | - |
| Larry Sanders * | 35 | 9-19 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 21 | - |
| JJ Redick * | 29 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy * | 28 | 4-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Marquis Daniels * | 19 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Samuel Dalembert * | 18 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Ekpe Udoh * | 17 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - |
| John Henson * | 13 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague * | 44 | 11-19 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 18 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 42 | 5-14 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 16 | - |
| Al Horford * | 42 | 11-20 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 23 | - |
| Devin Harris * | 38 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 6-7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Kyle Korver * | 35 | 3-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| John Jenkins * | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Ivan Johnson * | 10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| DeShawn Stevenson * | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Anthony Tolliver * | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Dahntay Jones | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter