Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Cleveland Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 82.5% | 17.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 88.2% | 11.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 66.7% | 33.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 63.9% | 36.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.9% | 17.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.9% | 17.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 65.3% | 34.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cleveland Cavaliers -3 (95-98). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 42 | 8-22 | 3-7 | 6-8 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 26 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 38 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 35 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 34 | 5-8 | 3-6 | 4-5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 7 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 28 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 25 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Ellington * | 41 | 7-17 | 3-7 | 3-3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 11 | - |
| Shaun Livingston * | 36 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Tristan Thompson * | 36 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Alonzo Gee * | 32 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | - |
| CJ Miles * | 24 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Tyler Zeller * | 23 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 18 | - |
| Luke Walton * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Daniel Gibson * | 14 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -1 | - |
| Marreese Speights * | 11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Omri Casspi * | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter