Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks -14 (113-127). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 31 | 7-11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 30 | 7-11 | 2-2 | 6-6 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 23 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 30 | 10-14 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 15 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 27 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 24 | 5-9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Mike James * | 23 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 21 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 20 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Anthony Morrow * | 13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Elton Brand * | 12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Bernard James | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Chris Wright | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Horford * | 35 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 17 | - |
| Jeff Teague * | 32 | 7-13 | 0-3 | 5-7 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 30 | 5-11 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Kyle Korver * | 27 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
| John Jenkins * | 27 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Anthony Tolliver * | 25 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Devin Harris * | 23 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Ivan Johnson * | 15 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 12 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Shelvin Mack | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Mike Scott | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter