Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.1% | 30.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 76.6% | 23.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 61.2% | 38.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 80.7% | 19.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 80.8% | 19.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 63.5% | 36.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -6 (101-107). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant * | 39 | 10-19 | 2-5 | 9-9 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 20 | - |
| Serge Ibaka * | 39 | 7-11 | 1-2 | 3-8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 25 | - |
| Russell Westbrook * | 37 | 13-23 | 0-4 | 9-9 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 22 | - |
| Kendrick Perkins * | 28 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | - |
| Thabo Sefolosha * | 27 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Kevin Martin * | 24 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Nick Collison * | 18 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Derek Fisher * | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Reggie Jackson * | 12 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 34 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 33 | 8-10 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 21 | - |
| Mike James * | 32 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 29 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 28 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 27 | 6-12 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 22 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Elton Brand * | 20 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois * | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Chris Kaman | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter