Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.8% | 84.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 25.5% | 74.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.0% | 69.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks +6 (115-109). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Harkless * | 43 | 9-17 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 19 | - |
| Nikola Vučević * | 41 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 22 | - |
| Jameer Nelson * | 39 | 7-19 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 9 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 39 | 11-20 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 10 | - |
| Tobias Harris * | 31 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 5-6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Beno Udrih * | 18 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | - |
| E'Twaun Moore * | 14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Doron Lamb * | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Kyle O'Quinn * | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jennings * | 43 | 4-15 | 3-8 | 4-5 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 17 | - |
| Monta Ellis * | 40 | 13-22 | 5-6 | 8-8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 25 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova * | 36 | 7-13 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 18 | - |
| Larry Sanders * | 33 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 8 | - |
| JJ Redick * | 23 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy * | 22 | 3-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Marquis Daniels * | 20 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Ekpe Udoh * | 14 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| John Henson * | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter