Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 74.0% | 26.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 85.6% | 14.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 62.1% | 37.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 77.5% | 22.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 77.5% | 22.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 61.3% | 38.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors -17 (91-108). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 34 | 10-15 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 19 | - |
| LeBron James * | 33 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 8-11 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 29 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 28 | 7-10 | 2-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 25 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 24 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 24 | 7-10 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 12 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 15 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Mike Miller | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| James Jones | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gay * | 37 | 11-20 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 17 | - |
| Amir Johnson * | 36 | 9-18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 20 | - |
| DeMar DeRozan * | 36 | 5-17 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | -4 | - |
| Jonas Valančiūnas * | 29 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Kyle Lowry * | 29 | 0-7 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Terrence Ross * | 26 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Alan Anderson * | 13 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Landry Fields * | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| John Lucas III * | 11 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Sebastian Telfair * | 7 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter