Model Predictions
| Model | Cleveland Cavaliers | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.6% | 75.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.3% | 65.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.1% | 60.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.1% | 60.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +10 (96-86). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Livingston * | 38 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 14 | - |
| Dion Waiters * | 36 | 9-19 | 1-3 | 2-5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 2 | - |
| Alonzo Gee * | 33 | 4-11 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Tyler Zeller * | 30 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Tristan Thompson * | 29 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Daniel Gibson * | 21 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Luke Walton * | 18 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 8 | - |
| CJ Miles * | 18 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Marreese Speights * | 13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jae Crowder * | 34 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 32 | 6-17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 12 | - |
| O.J. Mayo * | 28 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 26 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 25 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 23 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois * | 21 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 17 | - |
| Mike James * | 21 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Elton Brand * | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Bernard James | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Chris Wright | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter