Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.6% | 90.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 22.3% | 77.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 38.1% | 61.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.4% | 80.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 19.4% | 80.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 22.6% | 77.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +1 (92-91). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike James * | 35 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 34 | 6-16 | 3-5 | 6-6 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 23 | - |
| O.J. Mayo * | 33 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 26 | 4-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 26 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 24 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 23 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | - |
| Elton Brand * | 21 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 14 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Duncan * | 35 | 12-20 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 28 | - |
| Kawhi Leonard * | 33 | 5-14 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Danny Green * | 33 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 31 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 28 | 2-9 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Gary Neal * | 24 | 6-13 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Boris Diaw * | 22 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Cory Joseph * | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Stephen Jackson * | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - |
| DeJuan Blair * | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter