Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Philadelphia 76ers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 79.7% | 20.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 84.6% | 15.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 65.9% | 34.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 81.0% | 19.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 81.0% | 19.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 66.5% | 33.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Philadelphia 76ers -4 (94-98). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 39 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 16 | - |
| LeBron James * | 37 | 8-19 | 1-4 | 10-12 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 22 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 32 | 3-9 | 0-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 31 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 26 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 26 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 16 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - |
Philadelphia 76ers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday * | 42 | 9-18 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 18 | - |
| Thaddeus Young * | 37 | 11-20 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 22 | - |
| Evan Turner * | 37 | 7-13 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Damien Wilkins * | 30 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Spencer Hawes * | 22 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Dorell Wright * | 21 | 5-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Lavoy Allen * | 15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Charles Jenkins * | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Royal Ivey * | 8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Nick Young * | 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Arnett Moultrie | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter