Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.7% | 48.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +12 (105-93). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant * | 39 | 7-13 | 1-1 | 11-11 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 22 | - |
| Russell Westbrook * | 37 | 11-27 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 8 | - |
| Serge Ibaka * | 35 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 22 | - |
| Kendrick Perkins * | 34 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Thabo Sefolosha * | 30 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Kevin Martin * | 20 | 3-8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Nick Collison * | 16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Derek Fisher * | 12 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Reggie Jackson * | 11 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Hasheem Thabeet | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard * | 35 | 8-17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 35 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 33 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 22 | - |
| Danny Green * | 27 | 6-9 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Gary Neal * | 25 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Manu Ginobili * | 24 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Boris Diaw * | 18 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Cory Joseph * | 18 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Stephen Jackson * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| DeJuan Blair * | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Nando De Colo | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Patty Mills | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter