Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.5% | 81.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.5% | 68.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +14 (105-91). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul George * | 41 | 2-11 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 6 | - |
| David West * | 34 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 10-11 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 25 | - |
| Lance Stephenson * | 33 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Roy Hibbert * | 32 | 7-14 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 5 | - |
| D.J. Augustin * | 23 | 4-8 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | - |
| George Hill * | 21 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Orlando Johnson * | 14 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Tyler Hansbrough * | 13 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi * | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Sam Young | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Ben Hansbrough | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jeff Ayres | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 36 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 14 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 36 | 9-16 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 14 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 32 | 11-15 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 20 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 32 | 7-9 | 5-6 | 7-7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 26 | - |
| Ray Allen * | 20 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Chris Andersen * | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Norris Cole * | 15 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Joel Anthony * | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Mike Miller | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| James Jones | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter