Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Minnesota Timberwolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 82.4% | 17.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 83.9% | 16.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 62.4% | 37.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.7% | 21.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.7% | 21.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 62.3% | 37.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Minnesota Timberwolves -16 (81-97). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 37 | 15-23 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 22 | - |
| LeBron James * | 34 | 9-16 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 16 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 31 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 18 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 22 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Ray Allen | 26 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Shane Battier | 24 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Norris Cole | 22 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 14 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Mike Miller | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| James Jones | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
Minnesota Timberwolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Williams * | 45 | 10-22 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 11 | - |
| Ricky Rubio * | 38 | 6-11 | 2-4 | 0-3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Luke Ridnour * | 33 | 4-14 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Mickael Gelabale * | 23 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Greg Stiemsma * | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Dante Cunningham | 38 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Alexey Shved | 23 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | - |
| J.J. Barea | 21 | 1-11 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Chris Johnson | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
* = starter