Model Predictions
| Model | Utah Jazz | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 45.9% | 54.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.5% | 45.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks +1 (109-108). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Utah Jazz
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Millsap * | 44 | 7-17 | 0-1 | 8-12 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 22 | - |
| Derrick Favors * | 30 | 11-20 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 19 | - |
| Randy Foye * | 20 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Earl Watson * | 17 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Marvin Williams * | 14 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Gordon Hayward | 38 | 3-16 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 6 | - |
| Alec Burks | 35 | 7-10 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 12 | - |
| DeMarre Carroll | 32 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Enes Freedom | 31 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 17 | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jennings * | 46 | 8-14 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 24 | - |
| Monta Ellis * | 43 | 15-21 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 34 | 20 | - |
| Larry Sanders * | 39 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 23 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova * | 31 | 3-13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Luc Mbah a Moute * | 20 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | - |
| JJ Redick | 29 | 7-14 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | - |
| Samuel Dalembert | 21 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy | 18 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Ekpe Udoh | 13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
* = starter