Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 15.4% | 84.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.0% | 71.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.6% | 67.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies +6 (90-84). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 40 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | -2 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 33 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 29 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 10 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 26 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 21 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| Vince Carter | 27 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Elton Brand | 25 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Mike James | 21 | 2-10 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 14 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Anthony Morrow | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Randolph * | 38 | 7-16 | 0-1 | 8-10 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 20 | - |
| Marc Gasol * | 38 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 9-11 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 21 | - |
| Mike Conley * | 36 | 2-13 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Tayshaun Prince * | 26 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Tony Allen * | 25 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Quincy Pondexter | 26 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Austin Daye | 15 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Darrell Arthur | 14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Jerryd Bayless | 13 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Ed Davis | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter