Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.5% | 59.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -5 (90-95). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monta Ellis * | 44 | 8-17 | 2-5 | 4-5 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 21 | - |
| Brandon Jennings * | 32 | 3-11 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova * | 29 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Luc Mbah a Moute * | 27 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Larry Sanders * | 25 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy | 29 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | - |
| JJ Redick | 22 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Drew Gooden | 16 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Ekpe Udoh | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| John Henson | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 37 | 7-14 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 7 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 37 | 5-15 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 35 | 8-16 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 27 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 30 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Bernard James * | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Vince Carter | 25 | 0-8 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | - |
| Elton Brand | 25 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Mike James | 10 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 10 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Anthony Morrow | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter