Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento Kings | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.1% | 90.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 16.2% | 83.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 18.1% | 81.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 13.7% | 86.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 13.6% | 86.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.2% | 81.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +12 (141-129). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Salmons * | 50 | 6-11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 15 | - |
| DeMarcus Cousins * | 49 | 10-17 | 0-1 | 4-7 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 25 | - |
| Isaiah Thomas * | 48 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Tyreke Evans * | 42 | 11-19 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 18 | - |
| Jason Thompson * | 26 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Marcus Thornton | 40 | 11-18 | 8-12 | 6-8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 24 | - |
| Patrick Patterson | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Aaron Brooks | 9 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Chuck Hayes | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Travis Outlaw | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 47 | 14-23 | 1-2 | 11-12 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 42 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 45 | 19-28 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 39 | 27 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 41 | 5-13 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 18 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 32 | 2-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 21 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Ray Allen | 41 | 8-14 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | - |
| Norris Cole | 24 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 18 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 16 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
* = starter