Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Lakers | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.0% | 46.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.0% | 40.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.1% | 39.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -4 (99-103). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant * | 38 | 13-21 | 4-5 | 8-10 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 32 | - |
| Metta World Peace * | 36 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Steve Nash * | 33 | 7-12 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 12 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 32 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5-10 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | - |
| Earl Clark * | 29 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Antawn Jamison | 26 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Jodie Meeks | 26 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 5-5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Steve Blake | 16 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 38 | 11-19 | 4-4 | 4-5 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 26 | - |
| O.J. Mayo * | 34 | 2-9 | 1-3 | 3-6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 28 | 3-11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 25 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 | - |
| Bernard James * | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Vince Carter | 28 | 6-13 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 7 | - |
| Elton Brand | 28 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Mike James | 19 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 18 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Chris Kaman | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Anthony Morrow | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter