Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Hawks | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.5% | 43.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 55.5% | 44.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.5% | 44.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks -1 (102-103). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Smith * | 39 | 6-19 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Devin Harris * | 38 | 7-11 | 4-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 15 | - |
| Jeff Teague * | 36 | 8-15 | 2-3 | 5-5 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 19 | - |
| Al Horford * | 36 | 11-22 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 17 | - |
| Anthony Tolliver * | 11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Kyle Korver | 32 | 2-10 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Zaza Pachulia | 20 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | - |
| John Jenkins | 19 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | - |
| Dahntay Jones | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monta Ellis * | 43 | 7-15 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Larry Sanders * | 36 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 21 | - |
| Brandon Jennings * | 30 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Ersan Ilyasova * | 28 | 9-15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 13 | - |
| Luc Mbah a Moute * | 14 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| JJ Redick | 35 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 7-7 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Mike Dunleavy | 20 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Samuel Dalembert | 15 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| John Henson | 14 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 12 | - |
* = starter