Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Philadelphia 76ers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.9% | 28.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 80.5% | 19.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.0% | 36.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 62.5% | 37.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.7% | 21.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.8% | 21.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.6% | 35.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Philadelphia 76ers -24 (90-114). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 32 | 14-18 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 24 | - |
| LeBron James * | 31 | 7-12 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 25 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 26 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 24 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Ray Allen | 25 | 4-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Shane Battier | 25 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Norris Cole | 21 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| James Jones | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jarvis Varnado | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Philadelphia 76ers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday * | 37 | 8-11 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 20 | - |
| Evan Turner * | 36 | 8-19 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 5 | - |
| Nick Young * | 33 | 8-14 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | - |
| Lavoy Allen * | 32 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Spencer Hawes * | 25 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Dorell Wright | 31 | 6-13 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 9 | - |
| Jeremy Pargo | 21 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Royal Ivey | 8 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | - |
| Arnett Moultrie | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Damien Wilkins | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter