Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Chicago Bulls | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.4% | 40.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.2% | 32.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 54.6% | 45.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 55.5% | 44.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.9% | 33.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.9% | 33.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Chicago Bulls -19 (67-86). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 36 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 14 | - |
| LeBron James * | 34 | 11-15 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 28 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 32 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 27 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Ray Allen | 29 | 4-11 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Shane Battier | 23 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Norris Cole | 20 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| James Jones | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Chicago Bulls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joakim Noah * | 38 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | - |
| Luol Deng * | 32 | 3-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Carlos Boozer * | 32 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | - |
| Nate Robinson * | 28 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Richard Hamilton * | 22 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | - |
| Jimmy Butler III | 21 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Taj Gibson | 20 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -1 | - |
| Marquis Teague | 19 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Marco Belinelli | 15 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | - |
| Daequan Cook | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Nazr Mohammed | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Vladimir Radmanovic | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter