Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento Kings | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 34.4% | 65.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 34.4% | 65.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.9% | 69.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +23 (123-100). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreke Evans * | 36 | 8-12 | 0-2 | 7-7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 12 | - |
| Jason Thompson * | 35 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 16 | - |
| Isaiah Thomas * | 29 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 2 | - |
| DeMarcus Cousins * | 28 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 7-9 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 18 | - |
| John Salmons * | 27 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| James Johnson | 24 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Francisco Garcia | 23 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Jimmer Fredette | 18 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | - |
| Travis Outlaw | 5 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Chuck Hayes | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Tyler Honeycutt | 4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 30 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 24 | - |
| O.J. Mayo * | 29 | 3-11 | 0-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 2 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 29 | 7-12 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 18 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 28 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Bernard James * | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | - |
| Vince Carter | 22 | 9-15 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 18 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 17 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 16 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Elton Brand | 15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 13 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Dahntay Jones | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Mike James | 9 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | - |
* = starter