Model Predictions
| Model | LA Clippers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +22 (111-89). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
LA Clippers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caron Butler * | 24 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Blake Griffin * | 24 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 10 | - |
| DeAndre Jordan * | 22 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 3-7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Chris Paul * | 19 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2 | - |
| Chauncey Billups * | 16 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Eric Bledsoe | 28 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Jamal Crawford | 24 | 6-15 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | - |
| Matt Barnes | 23 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Lamar Odom | 21 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ryan Hollins | 20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | - |
| Willie Green | 7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Ronny Turiaf | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 31 | 8-16 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 19 | - |
| LeBron James * | 30 | 9-11 | 4-5 | 8-11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 27 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 24 | 5-9 | 5-8 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 16 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 21 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 17 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 26 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Norris Cole | 23 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Mike Miller | 23 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 18 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| James Jones | 7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Jarvis Varnado | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter