Model Predictions
| Model | Portland Trail Blazers | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +6 (105-99). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Portland Trail Blazers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Batum * | 40 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | - |
| LaMarcus Aldridge * | 39 | 11-22 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 17 | - |
| Damian Lillard * | 38 | 6-17 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Wesley Matthews * | 36 | 7-16 | 5-12 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 12 | - |
| JJ Hickson * | 32 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Luke Babbitt | 10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Will Barton | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Jared Jeffries | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Nolan Smith | 9 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Victor Claver | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Meyers Leonard | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 39 | 11-14 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 20 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 34 | 7-19 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 31 | 6-13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 29 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Bernard James * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Elton Brand | 28 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Vince Carter | 25 | 7-15 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 6 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 18 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 13 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter