Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Oklahoma City Thunder | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 8.8% | 91.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.0% | 81.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 22.6% | 77.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.2% | 80.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 19.2% | 80.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Oklahoma City Thunder +21 (112-91). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 33 | 4-10 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Bernard James * | 27 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 26 | 10-14 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 14 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 26 | 3-11 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 23 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 28 | 3-11 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Dominique Jones | 14 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Elton Brand | 13 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Mike James | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 9 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Dahntay Jones | 8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook * | 29 | 8-16 | 0-1 | 8-9 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 18 | - |
| Kevin Durant * | 28 | 6-11 | 2-2 | 5-6 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 22 | - |
| Serge Ibaka * | 27 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Thabo Sefolosha * | 24 | 3-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Kendrick Perkins * | 22 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | - |
| Kevin Martin | 22 | 7-12 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Reggie Jackson | 20 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Nick Collison | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| DeAndre Liggins | 12 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Hasheem Thabeet | 10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Perry Jones III | 10 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Eric Maynor | 9 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Daniel Orton | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
* = starter