Model Predictions
| Model | Charlotte Hornets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.6% | 93.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 11.4% | 88.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.8% | 84.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.1% | 87.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.1% | 87.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 17.2% | 82.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +5 (99-94). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Henderson * | 37 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Jeffery Taylor * | 28 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Bismack Biyombo * | 23 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Kemba Walker * | 22 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Jeff Adrien * | 14 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Ramon Sessions | 35 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 10-10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Byron Mullens | 28 | 5-14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Ben Gordon | 27 | 6-16 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | - |
| Reggie Williams | 13 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Brendan Haywood | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 38 | 13-14 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 30 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 37 | 7-19 | 0-1 | 6-10 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 15 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 29 | 11-18 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 11 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 21 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Norris Cole | 29 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Ray Allen | 26 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Shane Battier | 24 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | - |
* = starter