Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.4% | 32.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 82.1% | 17.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 62.0% | 38.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 60.5% | 39.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.5% | 24.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.5% | 24.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.7% | 39.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors -15 (85-100). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 39 | 10-16 | 1-2 | 9-11 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 28 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 33 | 12-19 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 13 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 31 | 10-18 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 16 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 30 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Shane Battier | 33 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Ray Allen | 19 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Norris Cole | 17 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Chris Andersen | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMar DeRozan * | 44 | 6-17 | 1-3 | 14-14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | - |
| Rudy Gay * | 41 | 11-23 | 1-5 | 6-7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 14 | - |
| Amir Johnson * | 31 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | - |
| Kyle Lowry * | 30 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Aaron Gray * | 22 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | - |
| Alan Anderson | 33 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | - |
| John Lucas III | 17 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Terrence Ross | 13 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Jonas Valanciunas | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter