Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.5% | 67.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.1% | 43.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 52.2% | 47.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns -10 (99-109). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 37 | 7-19 | 2-3 | 4-5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 31 | 6-9 | 2-3 | 5-5 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 21 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 30 | 6-14 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Elton Brand * | 30 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Vince Carter | 26 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 25 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 18 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Mike James | 16 | 1-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Bernard James | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic * | 37 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 22 | - |
| Jared Dudley * | 33 | 7-12 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 8 | - |
| P.J. Tucker * | 32 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Luis Scola * | 31 | 7-15 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 15 | - |
| Marcin Gortat * | 30 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Michael Beasley | 28 | 2-13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | - |
| Shannon Brown | 22 | 7-11 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 14 | - |
| Markieff Morris | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Kendall Marshall | 10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | - |
* = starter