Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Golden State Warriors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 23.1% | 76.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.1% | 68.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.1% | 65.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Golden State Warriors +3 (100-97). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 39 | 8-13 | 3-5 | 6-8 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 22 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 35 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 23 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 30 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Elton Brand * | 18 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 13 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Vince Carter | 28 | 6-18 | 4-11 | 6-7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 9 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 22 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 17 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Bernard James | 17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 15 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Dominique Jones | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Mike James | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack * | 42 | 3-13 | 2-5 | 5-5 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 10 | - |
| David Lee * | 41 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 30 | - |
| Harrison Barnes * | 38 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Klay Thompson * | 34 | 11-18 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 11 | - |
| Andrew Bogut * | 25 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Carl Landry | 19 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Draymond Green | 15 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Richard Jefferson | 11 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Andris Biedrins | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Kent Bazemore | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Charles Jenkins | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter