Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.3% | 75.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +8 (118-110). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden * | 41 | 6-13 | 1-2 | 8-12 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 13 | - |
| Chandler Parsons * | 37 | 8-13 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 12 | - |
| Omer Asik * | 34 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 20 | - |
| Jeremy Lin * | 31 | 8-15 | 1-3 | 5-8 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 14 | - |
| Patrick Patterson * | 26 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 11 | - |
| Carlos Delfino | 25 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Toney Douglas | 19 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Marcus Morris Sr. | 17 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Greg Smith | 6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Iguodala * | 36 | 5-13 | 1-7 | 4-6 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Danilo Gallinari * | 33 | 10-17 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 18 | - |
| Ty Lawson * | 33 | 4-12 | 1-3 | 7-8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 32 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 21 | - |
| Kosta Koufos * | 19 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Wilson Chandler | 25 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Andre Miller | 24 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Corey Brewer | 20 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 4-7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Timofey Mozgov | 13 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | - |
* = starter