Model Predictions
| Model | Indiana Pacers | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.6% | 66.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 49.2% | 50.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +1 (102-101). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul George * | 44 | 9-17 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 23 | - |
| George Hill * | 39 | 4-12 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Lance Stephenson * | 37 | 8-13 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 19 | - |
| David West * | 35 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 9 | - |
| Roy Hibbert * | 32 | 3-12 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Ian Mahinmi | 15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | - |
| D.J. Augustin | 12 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Tyler Hansbrough | 12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Orlando Johnson | 10 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Lawson * | 40 | 7-17 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Danilo Gallinari * | 37 | 9-16 | 3-6 | 6-7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 19 | - |
| Andre Iguodala * | 37 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 5-10 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 19 | - |
| Kosta Koufos * | 35 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 14 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Corey Brewer | 29 | 5-11 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Timofey Mozgov | 25 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Andre Miller | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -2 | - |
| Anthony Randolph | 4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter