Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.1% | 34.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.4% | 28.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 57.7% | 42.3% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 58.2% | 41.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 70.3% | 29.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.3% | 29.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.5% | 42.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Boston Celtics +2 (100-98). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 51 | 14-31 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 27 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 46 | 7-12 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 46 | 6-20 | 0-4 | 5-6 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 5 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 22 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Ray Allen | 38 | 7-17 | 2-8 | 5-7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 9 | - |
| Shane Battier | 35 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Norris Cole | 13 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Pierce * | 48 | 6-16 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 20 | - |
| Kevin Garnett * | 44 | 10-19 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 24 | - |
| Avery Bradley * | 27 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Courtney Lee * | 25 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Jared Sullinger * | 22 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Jeff Green | 41 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Jason Terry | 32 | 4-12 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Leandro Barbosa | 30 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Brandon Bass | 13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Chris Wilcox | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter