Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Orlando Magic -6 (105-111). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison * | 35 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 14 | - |
| O.J. Mayo * | 34 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 33 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 20 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 31 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 22 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Vince Carter | 29 | 4-11 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Elton Brand | 23 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 17 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Mike James | 12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vučević * | 40 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 38 | 5-13 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Jameer Nelson * | 37 | 7-17 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 11 | - |
| Glen Davis * | 34 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 21 | - |
| DeQuan Jones * | 13 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| JJ Redick | 31 | 7-13 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Josh McRoberts | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - |
| Maurice Harkless | 14 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| E'Twaun Moore | 12 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
* = starter