Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Lakers | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.1% | 39.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 52.2% | 47.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 55.3% | 44.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.7% | 35.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 64.7% | 35.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.0% | 48.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +5 (108-103). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Los Angeles Lakers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobe Bryant * | 42 | 10-32 | 3-12 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 0 | - |
| Steve Nash * | 37 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Pau Gasol * | 32 | 10-15 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 17 | - |
| Metta World Peace * | 25 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Earl Clark | 34 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 22 | - |
| Antawn Jamison | 30 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Chris Duhon | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - |
| Darius Morris | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Robert Sacre | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landry Fields * | 37 | 8-11 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 20 | - |
| Ed Davis * | 31 | 9-13 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 12 | - |
| DeMar DeRozan * | 30 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 | - |
| Jose Calderon * | 30 | 9-15 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Aaron Gray * | 15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Alan Anderson | 28 | 5-13 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Amir Johnson | 21 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 14 | - |
| Terrence Ross | 18 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | - |
| Kyle Lowry | 17 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Quincy Acy | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter