Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.9% | 32.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 71.6% | 28.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.1% | 35.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.1% | 21.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.2% | 21.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.1% | 35.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks -5 (93-98). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Green * | 34 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Kawhi Leonard * | 33 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 33 | 10-22 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 17 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 28 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Boris Diaw * | 24 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Matt Bonner | 23 | 7-8 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Gary Neal | 19 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -5 | - |
| DeJuan Blair | 19 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Nando De Colo | 14 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Stephen Jackson | 8 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Korver * | 38 | 7-12 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 16 | - |
| Al Horford * | 37 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 17 | - |
| Jeff Teague * | 37 | 6-16 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 7 | - |
| Josh Smith * | 37 | 8-15 | 0-1 | 5-8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 17 | - |
| Zaza Pachulia * | 28 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | - |
| John Jenkins | 22 | 3-12 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -2 | - |
| Devin Harris | 17 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 3-6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 | - |
| Anthony Tolliver | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ivan Johnson | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Mike Scott | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter