Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.9% | 32.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 59.7% | 40.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 71.8% | 28.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 71.9% | 28.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.6% | 42.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +5 (105-100). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Parsons * | 39 | 6-14 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 12 | - |
| James Harden * | 37 | 5-23 | 1-8 | 9-12 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 11 | - |
| Omer Asik * | 36 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 21 | - |
| Jeremy Lin * | 30 | 6-13 | 1-3 | 6-10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 10 | - |
| Patrick Patterson * | 23 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Carlos Delfino | 24 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -4 | - |
| Marcus Morris Sr. | 15 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Patrick Beverley | 13 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Greg Smith | 11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - |
| Toney Douglas | 7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 33 | 7-14 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 14 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 33 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 16 | - |
| O.J. Mayo * | 32 | 3-14 | 0-3 | 12-13 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 19 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 31 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 21 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Elton Brand | 26 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 | - |
| Vince Carter | 19 | 1-7 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | - |
| Mike James | 16 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 12 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Dahntay Jones | 12 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
* = starter